Tennis Value Bets

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Looking for top tennis insight for your bet slip? Racquet experts at Free Super Tips are more reliable than a Djokovic backhand.

Want a comprehensive guide to everything you need to know about tennis betting? We take you through the best bookies, markets and offers available online. Cheeky PunterLearn how to use stats to adapt your tennis betting strategy & better your ability to find value bets - 5 factors you MUST consider when betting on tennis. The Oracle is a new tool that allows, on the basis of a mathematical model based on actuarial techniques, to determine the probability of occurrence.

We scour the form guides and crunch the stats to find the best betting value out there in the tennis world. Then we share it with you. Of course, all of our tennis tips are completely free.

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Tennis Betting Tips for Grand Slams and Beyond

Whether you’re following one of the big Grand Slam tournaments at Wimbledon, Roland-Garros, Flushing Meadows or Melbourne Park, or looking for tips and trends at the ATP tour, our tennis aces know just what it takes to get value out from tennis betting. Our tipsters put up their Tennis predictions for every ATP tour event on a weekly basis so if you’re looking for a bet on Tennis we have you covered here at Free Super Tips.

Tennis Free Bets

And on our free bets page you can find a number of great introductory offers to give you even better value on your Tennis bets.

The Grand Slam

The Grand Slam tournaments – Australian Open, French Open (Roland Garros), Wimbledon and US open are the most prestigious events in the Tennis calendar.

Australian Open

The first major of the year is held in the last fortnight of January at Melbourne Park, Melbourne. The Australian Open is now played on hard courts across three arenas with the final being held at the Rod Laver Arena.

French Open

Stade Roland Garros, Paris hosts the second major of the year, The French Open. The only Grand Slam event held on clay over the last two weeks in late May and early June. It also brings the clay court season to an end.

Wimbledon Betting Tips & Predictions 2019

The oldest Tennis tournament in the world held at the All England Tennis Club, London. Held during British summer time in late June and early July. Arguably the most prestigious event of the Tennis calendar and is the only major played on grass courts. We have Wimbledon betting tips every day of the tournament, tennis accumulators, doubles and our mega odds accas. Get today’s free Wimbledon predictions and ace the bookies!

US Open Betting Tips & Predictions 2019

The modern version of the oldest Tennis Championship in the world. Played during the fortnight of late August and early September from USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York City. Like the Australian Open it’s played on hard courts and is the finale of the Grand Slam.

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Understanding the benefit of using data when assessing value bets in tennis is naturally, very useful, for successful betting.

While tennis punters tend to either be in one of two camps – ones who trust their eyes, and the others who use stats and data, even the former genre will almost always consider data in some way, shape or form.

Having established a website which supplies extensive tennis data, I thought I’d run through some of the various considerations when developing a tennis betting strategy and attempting to assess whether either player represents a value betting proposition.

Also included: Free Stats & Tennis Resources

Court Speed

When a match is listed on a website, or discussed on TV, it will be discussed as a generic surface, such as hard court, indoor hard court, clay court or grass court. These generic descriptions are often misleading, as the surface manufacturer, ball supplier and climatic conditions have a huge impact on the likely court speed.

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One clay court can play considerably differently to another, for example. During the clay Masters season in the European spring, the event at Madrid (which is at some altitude) plays much quicker than the tournament in Monte Carlo.

With this in mind, non-clay courters who have a big serve are more likely to have success in Madrid than in Monte Carlo, which has conditions which suit return-orientated grinders.

Rafa Nadal loves slow conditions, and despite Madrid being in his home country, the quicker conditions haven’t been to his taste, recording a much worse record there than in those slower conditions in Monte Carlo.

Mathematically speaking, I am more concerned with the impact of the conditions than understanding the underlying reasons behind them. Looking at the aces per game mean, compared to the tour surface average, is useful, as is comparing service points won and service hold percentages with those tour mean numbers. Quicker condition venues will have higher figures for all three metrics.

Projected Hold Percentage

Neatly tying in with court speed is the projected hold percentage for a match-up. The reason why it neatly ties in, is due to the effect that court speed will have on these projected hold numbers.

Having understood the impact of court speed, modellers can use service/return points won percentages, or serve hold/break opponent figures to predict a projected hold percentage for both players, which can then be assessed to establish a model price for either player.

If these have a sizeable discrepancy from the available bookmaker prices, a bet can be considered, assuming there are no other external issues needing to be factored in.

Head To Head Data

In the media, a narrow h2h lead, such as 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 is often mentioned as a positive for a given player. However, while it certainly cannot be a negative, tennis is a sport determined by very fine margins and having won one or two previous meetings isn’t a major issue at all – in fact, those media outlets pushing this as a valuable factor in pre-match assessment are often guilty of lazy journalism.

Previously, I discussed this with a former top ten player.

He had a disastrous head to head record against a particular opponent, yet he said that he felt that…

His h2h record had no bearing on his mental state prior to the matches.

He lost six consecutive deciding sets against that particular player (including numerous final set tiebreaks) and was in a dominant position in a number of these matches too. He said he felt very capable of beating that player and small margins determined his losses.

Understanding the context of head to head matches is key:

  • Has the losing player lost a lot of tight matches in the series?
  • Were they ranked much worse in those previous matches, before exhibiting current improvement?
  • Did the leading player play matches on a surface which considerably favoured him?

Bwin casino app android download. All these factors need to be considered when using h2h data as part of any betting strategy, in addition to the player data from these previous match-ups.

Injury & Fatigue Considerations

Many tennis match-ups have fitness concerns for one or both players.

These might be short-term injury (perhaps the player retired in a previous match) or long-term injury – we’ve seen that Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka, to give two recent examples, have had considerable difficulties even getting close to previous levels on their returns to tour.

Another concern here would be an arduous schedule, which could be from the current tournament (consecutive long matches, for example), or from previous weeks (perhaps consecutive runs to the latter stages in back-to-back events).

Travel considerations are also necessary to think about, particularly after Davis or Fed Cup weekends – frequently a player will have to fly halfway around the world and then have little time to acclimatise prior to their first-round match.

By building up a historical database of these situations it is possible to make a quantifiable judgement as to the effect of these various fitness concerns, which can then be used to make adjustments to basic model pricing.

Key Point Variance

Tennis Value Bets 2020

The final point I would like to discuss is key point variance. In short, it is very rare for a player to be ‘clutch’ long-term, with the ability to convert and save break points usually rather variance-heavy.

For example, there are regularly players who have won 60% of their matches over a given time frame despite having won a 100% or fewer combined serve and return points won percentage. In the long run, this 100% figure should yield a 50% win rate, so that particular player is winning matches at a rate greater than their expectations, and in these spots, the player usually mean-reverts by losing some matches in the short or medium term.

Conversely, some players might look on the surface to be in a bad run of ‘form’, but statistics may indicate they are much better than these bare results.

Sam Querrey, on hard courts, is currently one. He’s winning more than 50% of competed points over the last 12 months but has lost more matches than he’s won – basically, he’s lost more than his fair share of key points. I’d suggest he should be able to turn that around in the not too distant future.

If you’re not taking these key data points into consideration when developing your betting strategies for Tennis then it’s likely you’re overlooking some of the most important data available to you.

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