Online Poisson distribution calculator that outputs the probability of an event occurring a given number of times. You must know the expected frequency of the event. Compute Poisson distribution probabilities by typing the population mean (λ), and provide details about the event you want to compute the probability.
What is a Poisson Calculator?
A Poisson calculator can help you calculate the winning chances and odds of Poisson styled bets, based on the underlying winning percentage. For people not familiar with the Poisson formula, we suggest that you read up on it in order to fully understand how it works and how it will help you win while betting.
A Poisson calculator can only be used to calculate bets that falls under the Poisson category, so first step for you as a punter is to determine whether or not a bet falls under that category. This can be done by looking at if the bet is based on 'how many' times team will do a sack in a game, how many corner kicks a team will have and similar. It's not a Poisson bet if it doesn't fall into this category and will be completely random, i.e. you cannot use any statistical data to determine what the common average for a team is against what the bookie offers you as a bet.
To give you an example of this, let's say that you want to bet on how many corner kicks a team is going to have in a football match. By looking at the long term average you establish that they get per match is 10 and the bookie offers you 1.8 on under 10.5 and 2.1 on over 10.5. Using the Poisson calculator can help you find out if the bet has any value for you by calculating the odds of under and over, so you can see if there's an edge for you or not. In this case the Poisson calculator says that the less than 10.5 goals has a 58.3040% chance of happening, it is the favorite and you should be able to make money with the bet long term.
How Do I Use It?
Using the Poisson calculator is very simple as you only to fill in two fields with numbers and then press the calculate button to get your result. If we look at the example with the corner kicks from the previous section we have established that the team gets an average of 10 corner kicks in a game and the bookie has a bet of over under 10.5 corner kicks. In this case you will need to fill in the 10 corner kicks in the expected average field and 10.5 in the proposition field. Once you have done that you will get the result shown with the percentage of you winning the bet and what the money line is.
If you follow the rules of only using the Poisson calculator for real Poisson bets, then the tool is a great way to establish whether or not the odds that the bookie offers you for the bet is good or not. Furthermore it will also show you if you will be a winner in the long run or not by betting on these kind of bets, using statistical data.
In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution, is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event.
In English, if we know the average number of goals scored in a fixed interval of time (let-s say 90 minutes) the Poisson distribution give us the probability to be scored 0,1,2,3,4,..goals in the same interval of times.
In order to access Poisson calculator:
1. select 'goals scored' for the both teams on the right parameters panel;
2. click the 'REFRESH' button;
3. select a game in the main table;
4. click the 'Poisson calculator for selected game' button.
We can see that Freiburg scored this season at home 2.846 goals/game since Karlsruhe scored away 0.846 goals/game.
Now click on the 'Poisson calculator for selected game' button.
On the upper rows will see the probability to be scored a specific number of goals for each team. The most probable number of goals for Fraiburg is 2 (23.5% probability) and the most probable numbers of goals for the away team is 0 (42.9%).
Based on this distribution the system will calculate the probability for various type of results: correct score, over under, Asian handicap results..
The period of time you calculate the average number of goals have to be find after testing different values.