The model is also targeting two OTHER drivers with NASCAR at Kentucky odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag, including a MASSIVE long shot! Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks. So who wins Sunday's Quaker State 400? What are the Las Vegas odds for the NASCAR race at Kentucky? Here are the race odds according to Westgate Sportsbook: Martin Truex Jr., 4/1 Kyle Larson 5/1 Brad Keselowski, 5/1. Who's the favorite, and who might be a value pick? Scroll through to see the odds, provided by Penn National Gaming, for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Kentucky (2:30 p.m.
NASCAR race odds to win at Kentucky. Though Harvick has not won any of the nine Cup Series races that have been run at Kentucky since 2011, he is the favorite for Sunday's race because he has been. NASCAR Odds & Betting Lines. Betting on NASCAR races is much different than betting on head-to-head matchups in the various sports leagues across North America. Every race is a 40-car free-for-all in which the globe’s best stock car drivers constantly go toe-to-toe.© Provided by CBS Sports
May 17, 2020, Darlington, SC, USA; Kevin Harvick drives during the NASCAR Cup Series auto race. Mandatory Credit: Brynn Anderson/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Network
Since his win at Martinsville on June 10, Martin Truex Jr. has gone into a slump. The 2017 NASCAR Cup Series champion's average finish position is 17.8 in his last five races, dropping him to seventh in the NASCAR standings. But he has a strong chance to turn that trend around on Sunday at the 2020 Quaker State 400. The green flag drops at 2:30 p.m. ET at Kentucky Speedway, a track he's dominated.
Truex has won two of the last three NASCAR at Kentucky races and he's going off as one of the top contenders at 13-2 in the latest 2020 Quaker State 400 odds from William Hill, tied with Denny Hamlin. Points leader Kevin Harvick (4-1) and Kyle Busch (11-2) are the top two drivers in the current 2020 NASCAR at Kentucky odds. Before locking in any 2020 NASCAR at Kentucky predictions, be sure to see the latest 2020 Quaker State 400 picks and projected leaderboard from the proven model at SportsLine.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2020 NASCAR season by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start on its NASCAR picks following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven of the top 10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and the Toyota 500 at Darlington.
Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in an outright bet on Hamlin winning at 10-1 at Miami. And last week at The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Anybody who has follow the model has seen huge returns.
Now, the model simulated NASCAR at Kentucky 2020 on Sunday, July 12 10,000 times. Head here to see the complete projected leaderboard.
Top 2020 Quaker State 400 predictions
For the 2020 Quaker State 400, the model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he's a 12-1 long shot in the latest 2020 NASCAR at Kentucky odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Blaney has shown signs that he's becoming one of the elite Cup Series drivers this season, but he's drawing longer NASCAR odds because of a recent skid.
Following his win at Talladega, he's finished outside the top 10 in three straight races. However, he's been strong at 1.5-mile tracks like Kentucky, finishing fourth or better in his four starts on them. With seven top-five performances this season, he's shown the ability to contend on any given week, making him one of the double-digit long shot drivers to back in your 2020 Quaker State 400 bets.
And a massive shocker: Kevin Harvick, the Vegas favorite at 4-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2020 Quaker State 400 starting lineup. Harvick has been the most dominant driver in NASCAR this season and is coming off his fourth win of the season at The Brickyard on Sunday.
However, he hasn't been able to get over the hump at Kentucky so far in his career. Harvick has just one top-five finish at the 1.5-mile tri-oval and last year he failed to crack the top 20 altogether. With NASCAR still running without qualifying or practice, Harvick's track history makes him a fade on Sunday.
How to make 2020 Quaker State 400 picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2020 NASCAR at Kentucky odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag, including a massive long shot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can only see them here.
So who wins Sunday's 2020 Quaker State 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2020 NASCAR at Kentucky leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks and nailed the Daytona 500.
2020 NASCAR at Kentucky odds
Kevin Harvick 4-1
Kyle Busch 11-2
Denny Hamlin 13-2
Martin Truex Jr. 13-2
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Chase Elliott 8-1
Joey Logano 9-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Alex Bowman 20-1
Jimmie Johnson 22-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
William Byron 30-1
Erik Jones 30-1
Clint Bowyer 40-1
Matt Kenseth 50-1
Tyler Reddick 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 60-1
Christopher Bell 75-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Ryan Newman 125-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 150-1
Bubba Wallace 250-1
Cole Custer 250-1
Chris Buescher 500-1
John Hunter Nemechek 750-1
Ryan Preece 1500-1
Michael McDowell 1500-1
What is an if bet. An 'If-win bet' is the choice of gamblers concerned with money management or those who like to spread their bets around a number of different games. In an if bet, the player wagers a fixed amount on one team, and if that team wins then the original bet amount is passed on to the next matchup, in most cases up to a maximum of seven if-wins. An if bet is a series of wagers where the action continues to the next bet only if a condition is met. These can be if win bets or if win/push. A similar wagering option called reverse bets function as if win, push, no action or cancel.
Ty Dillon 1500-1
Daniel Suarez 2500-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
Brennan Poole 5000-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
Joey Gase 5000-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Picking a winner based on the odds for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Kentucky Speedway is tricky since the event is now a day race. NASCAR’s schedule changes amid the COVID-19 pandemic pushed the Cup race at Kentucky to Sunday afternoon rather than its traditional Saturday night slot, and track conditions will be different in the heat of the day than they would be in the cool of the night.
Which means the results of past Kentucky races are not as helpful when it comes to predicting how Sunday’s race will play out. Only one of the previous nine NASCAR Cup Series races at the 1.5-mile oval in Sparta, Ky., has been a day race, and that was due to a rain delay in 2014.
MORE: Complete starting lineup for Sunday’s race at Kentucky
The odds for Sunday’s NASCAR race at Kentucky also are interesting because the favorite to win, Kevin Harvick, has never been to victory lane at this particular track, one of two places (the Charlotte ROVAL being the other) where the current Cup Series points leader has not won.
Below are the complete Vegas odds to win Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Kentucky, plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.
NASCAR race odds to win at Kentucky
Though Harvick has not won any of the nine Cup Series races that have been run at Kentucky since 2011, he is the favorite for Sunday’s race because he has been dominant of late. Not only does he lead the points standings by 85 points over second-place Chase Elliott, but after last week’s win at Indianapolis, he is tied with Denny Hamlin for the most wins this year with four. Harvick has held the top spot in the points since March.
And it’s not like Harvick has been bad in his nine starts at Kentucky. He has posted one top five, six top 10s and an average finish of 10.8.
Below are the complete odds to win Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Kentucky, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
|Driver||Odds to win Kentucky race|
|Martin Truex Jr.||+900|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||+20000|
|John Hunter Nemechek||+20000|
Vegas Odds Nascar
Of the drivers currently in the top 10 in the NASCAR Cup Series points standings, Kyle Busch (10th in points) has by far the best driver rating at Kentucky. His rating of 125.5 is comfortably north of Brad Keselowski’s 105.5, Martin Truex Jr.’s 102.6 and Harvick’s 102.4.
Below are the top 10 driver ratings at Kentucky Speedway among those in Sunday’s field.
- Kyle Busch, 125.5
- Brad Keselowski, 105.5
- Martin Truex Jr., 102.6
- Kevin Harvick, 102.4
- Matt Kenseth, 101.7
- Erik Jones, 98.3
- Kurt Busch, 93.7
- Joey Logano, 93.7
- Jimmie Johnson, 89.9
- Ryan Blaney, 89.8
Busch not only has the best rating going into Sunday’s race, but he also has the benefit of starting on the pole based on Wednesday’s random draw for starting positions.
Three of the nine Kentucky Cup Series races have been won from the pole, including Busch’s 2011 victory when qualifying was canceled by weather. Five of the nine Cup Series races at Kentucky have been won from the front row.
Below is the breakdown of wins from all positions that have produced victors in the history of Cup racing (nine total races) at Kentucky.
|Starting position||Winning %||Wins|
The top 10 starters for Sunday’s race at Kentucky are as follows: 1. Kyle Busch, 2. Joey Logano, 3. Kevin Harvick, 4. Aric Almirola, 5. Alex Bowman, 6. Brad Keselowski, 7. Kurt Busch, 8. Chase Elliott, 9. Martin Truex Jr., 10. Matt DiBenedetto
NASCAR at Kentucky expert picks
1. Kyle Busch
Career stats at Kentucky:
- Two wins, seven top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
- Average finish of 4.667, series-best
- Average Running Position of 4.606, series-best
- Driver Rating of 125.5, series-best
- 330 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
- 2,329 Laps in the Top 15 (96.8%), series-most
- 282 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Busch being 0-for-16 this season doesn’t scare us from picking the driver who statistically is the best in the series at Kentucky. Joe Gibbs Racing clearly has speed this season, as evidenced by its five wins. Time for the defending Cup Series champion to get on the board for 2020.
2. Kevin Harvick
Career stats at Kentucky:
- One top five, six top 10s
- Average finish of 10.778, fifth-best
- Average Running Position of 8.048, second-best
- Driver Rating of 102.4, fourth-best
- 96 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
- 2,135 Laps in the Top 15 (88.8%), second-most
- 339 Quality Passes, series-most
This is a boring pick, but it’s hard not to go with the favorite for Sunday’s race and the driver who has led an absurd 14.81 percent of the laps he has completed this season. Harvick is on a hot streak and is looking to get his first victory at a track where he tends to run well.
Vegas Odds Nascar Kentucky
3. Joey Logano
Career stats at Kentucky:
- Two top fives, six top 10s
- Average finish of 12.778, eighth-best
- Average Running Position of 12.332, eighth-best
- Driver Rating of 93.7, eighth-best
- 89 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
- 1,599 Laps in the Top 15 (66.5%), seventh-most
- 258 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Yes, Brad Keselowski is the Team Penske driver who has been the best at Kentucky, notching a series-high three wins at the track over the last nine years. But it’s not like Logano has run poorly. He also has three Xfinity Series wins at Kentucky. The Penske power should be on display yet again Sunday.
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