Starting on Sunday is the second Grand Slam of 2019, the French Open. This preview runs the rule over the conditions and contenders for the men’s singles title.
French Open 2019 predictions
The Roland Garros venue in Paris plays host to the French Open, which is arguably the toughest Grand Slam - physically - on the tennis calendar. The medium-slow clay conditions play a big part in this, with just 0.39 aces per game served at the tournament across the last three years (main draw data), a marked drop from other, more serve-orientated, Grand Slam events.
With this being the case, players are less likely to win cheap points, and will be required to win more long rallies during the course of their matches.
- French Open mens betting on the clay court tennis Grand Slam, held at Roland Garros in Paris. Find the best tennis odds for all available betting markets.
- Odds on the French Open. While the French Open remains a ways away, you can still get your bets in on the outright winners for both the men’s and women’s draw. That’s thanks to the active tennis futures market. You can find tennis odds to win the major events well in advance of the tournament itself. Men’s French Open odds.
2021 WTA Tour Match Odds. The Women's Tennis Association is the top-tier level of women's professional tennis which includes a series of international events like the WTA Premier tournaments, the Fed Cup, the year-end championships like the WTA Tour Championships and the WTA Elite Trophy plus the four Grand Slams.
Accumulated fatigue is always a key consideration in Grand Slam tennis, but here in Paris, it should be even more prominent in bettors’ thoughts
The effect of this is longer matches and more court time required to reach the latter stages, so for men’s players in particular it is important that the main contenders don’t over-exert themselves during the early rounds where they will usually be strong pre-match favourites.
Accumulated fatigue is always a key consideration in Grand Slam tennis, but here in Paris, it should be even more prominent in bettors’ thoughts.
In the last three events, 76.6% of service games have been held, a figure which is a slight drop in the overall clay figures on the ATP Tour during the same time period (77.0% mean), and we can accurately assess general conditons as medium-slow for clay, and likely to slightly assist players of a return-orientated dynamic.
Can anyone stop Rafa Nadal at the 2019 French Open?
Leading the outright market is certainly someone who fits nicely into that description - Rafa Nadal.
The Spaniard is currently priced at 2.04* to lift the trophy in two weeks’ time, and will start the tournament in good heart following his win in the Rome Masters last weekend, emphatically defeating Novak Djokovic in the final.
Both across the last 12 months, and in 2019 in isolation, Nadal has by far the best data on the ATP Tour, running at over 112% combined service and return points won percentage - beyond elite level numbers.
No other player can come remotely close to Nadal's figures, although of the major contenders, second favourite in the market, Novak Djokovic, is the player nearest
No other player can come remotely close to these figures, although of the major contenders, second favourite in the market, Novak Djokovic, is the player nearest.
The world number one has won 65.4% of service points on clay this year, and 40.9% on return (106.3% combined), with his issue being that he simply cannot challenge Nadal’s return figures. Certainly, the discrepancy between the two players using these metrics would indicate that it is difficult to justify Djokovic’s market price at 3.43*, at the time of writing.
The only other player in single-digit pricing is Dominic Thiem, with the Austrian’s clay data this year at 105.1% combined - top five level but not nearly as high as Nadal, and with a slight deficiency to Djokovic on return.
There is little doubt that Thiem will have his supporters following wins on slow hard court in Indian Wells, and subsequent clay triumph in Barcelona, but he’d still be a considerable underdog to Nadal in a head-to-head match, despite beating him en route to that Barcelona title. He’s currently priced at 7.10*.
2019 French Open odds: Is there any value at bigger odds?
A quartet of players are priced between the 10 and 20 mark in the current outright pricing. Among these, veteran Roger Federer is respected by the market at 18.75* despite withdrawing from Rome, and it’s worth noting that he has solid enough data (104.6% combined) on clay this year, even though the calibre of his opponents has generally been very strong.
Assuming a decent level of fitness, Federer would be expected to make the second week at the very least, and shouldn’t be completely ruled out, although it’s fair to suggest that he will have been likely to enjoy the quicker conditions in Madrid several weeks ago more than the slower ones he will face in Paris.
Priced at the same mark is Kei Nishikori, but statistically, the Japanese man is below the level exhibited by Federer. He’s below the 102% combined mark on clay this year, which is considerably worse than his peak levels exhibited a few years ago.
It’s difficult to make a case for Nishikori, who has lost to Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Daniil Medvedev, Stan Wawrinka and Diego Schwartzman on the surface already this season.
The other two players in this price bracket are the fitness-doubt Juan Martin Del Potro, and the improving Greek talent, Stefanos Tsitsipas. Del Potro has only played three tournaments this year, and just two (in Madrid and Rome) on clay, so there are likely to be a number of question marks over the Argentine with regards to his longevity in Paris.
On the other hand, 20 year old Tstisipas is on a nice upward curve. He’s won 63.4% of service points and 41.0% on return (104.4% combined) which is a 1% increase on his 2018 surface data - largely on return, and can be considered a live contender at odds of 16.759*.
Following these players, we have to drop down to odds of 33.53* to find Alexander Zverev, whose 2019 data has plummeted following a very strong 2018 season.
The German has had big issues this year, with numerous defeats as solid favourite on the surface, and also has plenty to prove in Grand Slam events, only having reached one quarter-final at this level in his entire career - a facile loss to Thiem here last year, where he won just seven games in the match.
Who are the French Open underdogs?
At bigger odds - mostly around the 100.00 mark - there are some other contenders worthy of comment. Borna Coric has flown under the radar a little this season, but like Tsitsipas, is on a nice upward curve generally in his career, and at 105.7% combined, has exhibited strong clay data this season.
He lost having had several match points against Federer last week in Rome, so is evidently competing at a high level.
French Open Pre Tournament Odds 2020
Daniil Medvedev’s level on clay this year has been a surprise. The Russian player is a prodigious talent, but hadn’t been able to translate his level in quicker conditions to clay courts until this year. If he continues his rapid improvement on clay, he could shock a bigger name player.
French Open Pre Tournament Odds 2019
Other long-shots who aren’t even on the current pricing list who could be of interest include the likes of Matteo Berrettini and Christian Garin, who are both young and enjoying superb clay seasons, while Filip Krajinovic, Guido Pella and the evergreen Pablo Cuevas are very competent on the surface and are worth keeping an eye on for any eventual match-ups against high reputation players who may not be at a high level on the surface currently.
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Tennis fans haven't had much time to catch their collective breath following a wild and unusual US Open, but in this, the strangest sporting year of any of our lifetimes, it's time to turn the clock back to mid-May and gear up for the 2020 French Open at Roland Garros. The shortest clay-court season ever is already reaching its finale.
The French Open is a pretty orderly Grand Slam on the men's side -- only nine different players have reached a semifinal in the past five years (compared to 14 at the Australian Open and 13 at the pre-coronavirus US Open), and over that time period, 17 of 20 top-four seeds have reached at least the quarterfinals.
Really, you can track who's going to win by tracking three players: Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem. Thiem has eliminated Djokovic in two of the past three tournaments at Roland Garros, and Djokovic beat Thiem on the way to the 2016 title. Meanwhile, Nadal has beaten Thiem in each of the past two finals. This time around, Thiem and Nadal could battle in the semis with Djokovic awaiting the winner.
On the women's side, things are far less predictable. That's the nature of playing best-of-three sets instead of best-of-five anyway, but things tend to get particularly wild in Paris. Only eight of 20 top-four seeds have reached the quarterfinals over the past five years. Serena Williams hasn't made even the quarters since 2016, and in the past three tournaments, the previous year's winner has failed to reach the quarters as well.
(That streak is guaranteed to continue since 2019's French Open champ, Ashleigh Barty, is not participating.)
As we did for the US Open, let's walk through different clusters of players in each draw to give ourselves a good lay of the land before the chaos ensues.
Per Caesars by William Hill, here are the favorites on the men's side.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+2800)
Alexander Zverev (+3900)
Daniil Medvedev (+3900)
About what you'd expect, right? Odds of -110 are equivalent to saying Nadal has about a 48% chance of winning what would be his 13th French Open title, while Djokovic is at 32%, Thiem is at 25% and no one else is over 3%. (Yes, these odds add up to over 100%. That's the way it works in gambling.)
If you're looking for a new threat, Zverev might be the best bet. He has not only reached the past two French quarterfinals, but he has also experienced a Slam breakthrough in 2020, reaching the semis in Australia and the finals in the US Open. Tsitsipas has a game that might translate to clay better than Zverev's or Medvedev's, but the 22-year-old has battled consistency issues in Slams during his young career, advancing past the fourth round in any Slam only once.
Here are the women's favorites:
Simona Halep (+250)
Garbine Muguruza (+700)
Victoria Azarenka (+1200)
Elina Svitolina (+1400)
Kiki Bertens (+1600)
Halep, the 2018 champion and 2017 runner-up, has odds that translate to about a 29% chance, while Muguruza, winner in 2016 and semifinalist in 2018, is next at 13%. It makes sense that they're favored, especially since Muguruza might have the cleanest draw of any favorite despite her No. 11 seed, but one could make a convincing case that no one has anywhere close to a 29% chance against the field, even the extremely in-form Halep.
On the rise
Not including the betting favorites above, here are the men's players who have seen their ratings points rise the most since the start of this long, strange 2020:
Pablo Carreno Busta
Garin and Ruud have both seen clay-court breakthroughs in 2020. Garin won two of the first three clay tournaments of the year, while Ruud has reached three clay semifinals this year and won in Buenos Aires. The 28-year-old Krajinovic, meanwhile, has seen his career thrown off course by injury a couple of times but reached the third round at the French Open last year and stomped 2018 French semifinalist Marco Cecchinato on his way to the third round in the recent Italian Open. Krajinovic is the No. 26 seed and could face Tsitsipas in the third round.
Patricia Maria Tig
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Kenin's recent double-bagel loss to Azarenka on clay did not instill confidence, but she did reach the fourth round in Paris last year. While Rogers did reach the quarterfinals at Roland Garros back in 2016 and looked resurgent in reaching the US Open quarters recently, Tig might be a particularly interesting sleeper. The 26-year-old started the year ranked 114th but is a career-high 58th after winning in Istanbul earlier this month. Eleven of her 14 ITF titles, and now her only WTA title, came on clay. With a first-round win, she could get a second-round shot at No. 22 seed Karolina Muchova.
Dangerous on clay
Garin and Ruud have had particularly good seasons on the dirt this year, but a few more names are worth bringing up:
Schwartzman was upset in last year's French Open second round by Argentinian countryman Leonardo Mayer, but he reached the quarterfinals in 2018, two of his three career titles came on clay and, most impressive at the moment, he took down Nadal in straight sets while reaching the finals of last week's Italian Open. Kecmanovic, meanwhile, won at Kitzbuhel, and Djere has made a pair of clay semis in 2020.
On the women's side, we start with a player who almost feels like a sleeper despite earning the No. 2 seed.
Pliskova reached the semis at Roland Garros in 2017 and reached both the finals in Rome and the semis in Prague this year. She's battling a serious Slam funk at the moment -- since reaching the Aussie Open semis in 2019, she hasn't made it past the fourth round of one and got swept out of the US Open in the second round as the No. 1 seed.
Veterans to watch
French Open Pre Tournament Odds
It's both a shame and a blessing that Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray drew a first-round match against each other. It assures an early marquee battle, but it will also prevent one of them from making a run. The two shared an epic five-set battle in the 2017 French Open semifinals, but while Murray took down Wawrinka in the same round in 2016, Wawrinka has a 4-1 lifetime advantage over him on clay.
Like Murray, Cecchinato is currently outside the ATP top 100. He had to battle in through qualifying, but he could be a tricky first-round matchup with No. 25 seed Alex De Minaur.
There are former champions abound in the women's field despite Barty's absence. Along with Halep, Muguruza and Williams, you've also got 2017 champion Jelena Ostapenko and 2009 champion and No. 28 seed Svetlana Kuznetsova. Ostapenko could face Pliskova in the second round. The past two years' runners-up, No. 19 seed Marketa Vondrousova and No. 29 Sloane Stephens, both lurk as well.
In all, 13 women in the field have made at least the quarterfinals in the past five years, and Kuznetsova has seven pre-2015 quarterfinal appearances as well. Lots of women headed into the Paris bubble thinking they've got a great shot to make some noise.
For my US Open preview, I walked through three favorites and a wild card for each quarter of the draw. It was a fun exercise for expectation-setting, and it identified all eight eventual semifinalists. So let's do it again!
Djokovic quarter: Djokovic, Carreno Busta, Matteo Berrettini, Garin
Medvedev quarter: Tsitsipas, Rublev, Medvedev, Krajinovic
Thiem quarter: Thiem, Schwartzman, Ruud, Wawrinka
Nadal quarter: Nadal, Zverev, David Goffin, Fabio Fognini
It's easy to assume we know how this draw will play out -- Djokovic faces the Thiem-Nadal winner in the final -- but it's worth mentioning that each of the three favorites has quite a bit of work to do before the semis.
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Djokovic could face Garin or Khachanov in the fourth round and Berrettini, Carreno Busta or Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarters. Thiem gets two-time quarterfinalist Marin Cilic in the first round and could draw Ruud in the third, Wawrinka in the fourth and Schwartzman or Gael Monfils in the quarters. Nadal has the cleanest possible route but could still draw Nishikori in the third round and clay nemesis Fognini, who has three career clay wins over the legend, in the fourth. Survive that, and Zverev could await in the quarters.
Halep quarter: Halep, Bertens, Vondrousova, Swiatek
Svitolina quarter: Williams, Mertens, Svitolina, Azarenka
Kenin quarter: Muguruza, Rybakina, Kenin, Aryna Sabalenka
Pliskova quarter: Petra Kvitova, Petra Martic, Pliskova, Stephens
Over the past five years, an average of only 1.6 top-four seeds have reached even the quarterfinals. One could see how chaos might ensue once more. In fact, only one of each quarter's top seeds is listed as either my favorite or second-favorite in each quarter. Pliskova's road is particularly ridiculous -- she could face Ostapenko in the second round, Martic or top-ranked Frenchwoman Kristina Mladenovic in the fourth and either Kvitova or Madison Keys in the quarters. Maybe having lower expectations this time around will help her.