Baccarat Progression

Thread Rating:

letswin

Beautiful gifts. Baccarat is a French luxury brand internationally recognized as the leader for high-end, exclusive crystal products. Since it was founded in 1764, the Company, whose manufactory is based in Baccarat, Lorraine in Eastern France, has been synonymous with. Beware the Banker’s Cut! When you learn baccarat rules you will know it’s normal for the casino.

Like I did in my previous thread, I am here just to share an experience. I have been playing baccarat for a few years. And have been trying to find a way to beat the game for a long time. I've made over $500k and have lost over $500k (not including recent success). So I have been through the worst with this game. From using progressions, to waiting for triggers, card counting. Nothing has ever worked. Why? Why has always been my question...because when you bet player you have less than a total expectancy of 45% win rate and when betting banker, you have less than a total expectancy of 46% win rate. I know my math explanation is lame, but, basically, what I'm trying to say, is that it is a negative expectancy game. Which is not like I'm saying anything new..but I'm just saying...you are betting into something that has odds against you every single hand. Doesn't matter what count you use, what trigger you use. If you are using any kind of betting pattern? You will lose. Ten players does not mean a banker will come. Ten bankers does not mean a player will come. The win expectancy is totally individual each and every single hand. And it is not effected enough based on what cards came out, or what cards are left, to get any higher percentage than the two I said above. Over infinity? However, banker wins 50% of the time. No one will live that long to see that. And, even if you did, you would STILL be behind, because of the banker commission.
If you want to beat baccarat? You HAVE to use flat betting. I have created something that is quite remarkable. It's hard to explain, but, the only way I can explain it, is that I am basically, fighting fire with fire. Baccarat is totally random. And, in that randomness, you have less than a 50% chance of hitting banker or player, over the long run. You have a better chance of hitting head or tails 50% of the time over the long run when you flip a coin. This is true because of the way baccarat is designed. Even 50/50, can't be beaten by progressions. HOWEVER....baccarat uses cards. Cards, since they have a declining element, cannot be 100% random. Being that there are certain rules that create certain outcomes (stands, naturals, and then 6 card draws), a truly random element CAN BEAT a pseudo random element. This may not make sense to most, but, this is what I have created with my partner (my wife) to beat baccarat. We have, over the past 8 months, tested and tried a very effective flat betting method that has been generating us 30-80 units a day with a max draw down of 4-5 units at any given time. We've gone through many periods of winning over 20 hands in a row. I have never seen anything like that. And these win streaks are not on streaks of banker of player or chops, or twos, or threes..no, these are just streaks of winning hands period.
What is the secret to our success without giving away the system? Our bet selection is random. Our trigger is random. And our wagers are random. And all three of those change randomly. For random reasons. Nothing we do, has anything to do with banker, player, or the game itself. Yes. 100%, true randomness. And we bet every single hand. On paper? We're up over 1000s of units. In real live play? We're up a fortune. I'm not here to give away my system, sell my system,..I'm only here to share an experience to encourage certain things and share advice.
First, STAY RANDOM. Don't fall prey to patterns, simple triggers, banker/player tracking.
Second, don't ever use progressions. If you have to use a progression? Your system is a losing system.
Third, if you have to use 'triggers' that make you wait for certain 'conditions'? Then your system is a loser. You have to be able to bet on every single hand. This way? Your system will face all hand combinations.
Fourth, which is the most important one, TEST YOUR METHOD THOROUGHLY. Just because you beat a few hundred shoes that you recorded from your local casino, does not mean your system is a winner. Test your method against a simulator. A real baccarat random (rng) simulator. If your system, cannot stay positive, winning over 1000 units, flat betting, against a simulator? Then it will not work. Please people..this is VERY important advice. Too many times, people are in such a rush to use a system that has won fairly often enough in the casino. Listen to me when I say this...even if your system beats the casino shoes for a whole year..they can still lose. Here's why. Random results, force your 'system' to face more combinations, much sooner. It's like, putting the house edge in your face all the time. You can be in the casino, and not see enough hand combinations to really see the randomness of the game and the winning rate of the house edge for a long time. Due to weak shuffles, overlaps/clumps in the cards, .etc. etc. This never happens with simulations. Simulations are harder to beat than live cards because they pit you up against the long term odds much more sooner than live cards. So please, test your method THOROUGHLY against simulations for a long time. And set a number. If your system can BEAT a random baccarat simulator and put you in the positive 1000 or more units? Flat betting? Then you have beaten baccarat.
I am willing to answer any questions. I have lost so much money playing baccarat before discovering what I have discovered and I have finally made all of my money back plus TONS more. I want people to win. But, I cannot reveal my system to anyone, for obvious reasons.
Using my advice, anyone can create their own winning system!
sodawater
K sounds good
EvenBob


Is bitstarz legit. What is the secret to our success without giving away the system? Our bet selection is random. Our trigger is random. And our wagers are random.


Then you're losing right at the HE. Congrats.
'It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail.' Gore Vidal
letswin
What is HE?
And thanks!
thecesspit

What is HE?
And thanks!


House edge. It;'s an incorrect statement though. You expectation is right at the house edge. However, actual results aren't expectation, as you actually have the results of a play (or series of plays). You can only compare to the expectation at that point and see if you are above or below, how far and whether that it is within the variance expected, given the model of expected bets you are using.
Best of luck.
'Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante' - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Avincow
So basically you created a system based on being random? If your system is truly 'random', then by definition you don't have a system. You are betting randomly! Btw, betting randomly, progressively, or flat betting will get you to the same result in the long run. Please do not be deluded into thinking you have someway beat the casino with your random betting. You have experienced some good variance, and that is it. I have met my fair share of people who have told me they get good hunches to help them beat the casino and win $5000 or some other unrealistic goal. At the end of the night these same people are begging me for gas money. It's one of the reasons I try to avoid making friends with randoms at the casino.
letswin
Baccarat positive progression
Ah!
Great point.
That's I suggest simulators for everyone to use. Don't waste any money until your method is thoroughly tested.
sc15
tl; dr
but your system's a losing one.
letswin

So basically you created a system based on being random? If your system is truly 'random', then by definition you don't have a system. You are betting randomly! Btw, betting randomly, progressively, or flat betting will get you to the same result in the long run. Please do not be deluded into thinking you have someway beat the casino with your random betting. You have experienced some good variance, and that is it. I have met my fair share of people who have told me they get good hunches to help them beat the casino and win $5000 or some other unrealistic goal. At the end of the night these same people are begging me for gas money. It's one of the reasons I try to avoid making friends with randoms at the casino.


I agree with you that I don't have a system. My system isn't a system, it's more like an approach. A method. A style. The only person that is delusional is the person who has won a few and believe they have a system. Like I said. My method has been tested over 17 hours a day, for about a year against random results and is up over 1000s upon 1000s of units before finally being used lived, flat betting every single hand. That's not just some good variance And, in live play? I've been making about 100 units a day. Max draw down, only 4-5 units. It's not good variance, trust me. Random can beat random, if used properly.
But don't believe me, test the theory yourself. I won't give you my system, but, the idea is sound! Test it! It will blow your mind and change the way people approach gambling forever. If you can beat a simulator, and with stand all of the 5 million or so baccarat combinations? You have beaten the game, not, just created some good variance.
Just think about what I have said. I bet every single hand. That means I am betting 72 hands per shoe, every single shoe. I'm not avoiding anything. I'm not hitting and running. I'm not using a progression. I am flat betting and winning long term. I have beaten the game. Random can beat pseudo random. And I have proven it.
letswin

tl; dr
but your system's a losing one.


Before assuming or casting judgments, test the theory my friend!
  • Page 1 of 26

Although generally regarded as a true game of chance, especially if one opts for a punto banco variant, Baccarat can be a good platform for testing some of the most popular betting strategies. There is however an ongoing controversy when it comes to using any betting systems, even in the more skill-requiring baccarat versions, such as chemin de fer and baccarat banque; a number of gambling veterans often refer to betting systems as a myth encouraged by the casinos, with a sole purpose of prolonging gameplay time and enhancing the players’ losses. Still, there are a lot of experienced players that would disagree and advocate for a few of the most widely known betting systems that can be applied to baccarat as well.

There are two main types of progressive betting – negative and positive. With the negative progression system, the player gradually decreases betting amounts after every winning hand and increases the wager after a loss. Positive progression system takes the opposite approach and the players who use this particular strategy increase the bet after every successful hand and lower the stakes when the luck turns against them.

Baccarat Negative Progression

Fibonacci

Using negative betting systems in the game of baccarat – such as Fibonacci, for example – will not give you the advantage in terms of the game’s outcome; the point of the betting system is to keep the losses under control and dent the house edge. Whether or not this is possible can be debatable, however, Fibonacci system is known to prevent hasty decisions that could cut your gameplay time drastically. It also allows you to keep track of your losses in the dynamic baccarat environment or regroup when you find yourself in the cold streak.

Baccarat Progressive Jackpot

The system can of course be adjusted to your own bankroll and even reversed. Instead of increasing the bet by the total of two preceding numbers (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13… corresponding to bets of $10, $20, $30, $50, $80, $130…) and then going back two steps after a win, the player can also go one step forward after a win and go back two steps after a loss.

The main disadvantage of this betting system is that the method is predominantly suited to the high rolling players that can endure potentially long cold streaks. Players with a more limited budget may not find it equally beneficial since the results are short-termed and the losing streaks can go on hours on end.

Paroli

Paroli follows the positive betting structure, meaning that every win should be followed by doubling your bet three times in a row. The system starts with flat betting up until the first winning hand, when the player needs to double the wager. In case the hand loses, the player will return to the original flat betting amount; otherwise the stake will be increased by 2x once again, following the same pattern in the progression of three.

The whole idea of Paroli pattern rests on the belief of winning and losing streaks existence, allowing the player to maximize the winnings during the hot streaks and minimize losses during the cold ones. However, as with many other betting systems, Paroli strategy works for as long as luck is on your side and your winnings can thus be successfully directed towards increasing the wagers by several units; not to mention that it is far more stable than the negative betting systems and does not come with a large bankroll requirement. On the the hand, the losses can easily accumulate and exceed the expected level, placing you in a rather unfavourable position.

It is therefore easy to conclude that there are not bullet proof strategies nor there are any guarantees directing us to the perfect formula; with the abundance of gambling tactics, most are in fact considered worthless by a large part of the gambling population. The latter can of course turn out to be true if you are putting all of your eggs in one basket and one should always remember that the strategies are primarily designed to be a gamblers’ crouch, helping them keep records on their wagers and enabling budget control, but not much more. Sometimes, entering the game with realistic expectations and commons sense can in fact be the best strategy that one can employ.